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PART I. INTRODUCTION OF ESTIMATION OF RESERVES AND RESOURCES1

Introduction1

Chapter 1. User Costs and Optimal Depletion of Reserves3

The Theory of Depletion of Limited Resources3

Implications of the Theory of Exhaustion7

Reformulation of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources7

The Underlying Concept of Reserves10

The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate10

Chapter 2. Reserves versus Resources13

The Resource Base13

Reserves15

Chapter 3. Economic Issues for the Mining Industry17

Price and Marginal Cost17

Supply Curves18

Exploration Models22

Summary25

PART II. OIL AND GAS: ESTIMATION OF DISCOVERED RESERVES27

Introduction27

Chapter 4. Proved Reserves: the API-AGA-CPA System29

Engineering and Economic Concept of Proved Reserves33

Lessons of the 1971 Natural Gas "Audit"34

Chapter 5. Canada's "Nonconventional Reserves"37

Chapter 6. The Growth of Proved Reserves in the United States41

Types of Wells41

Reported "Discoveries"45

Sources of New Reserves in Old Fields46

New Oil or Gas: After Discovery46

Chapter 7. The Relation of Probable Reserves to Proved Reserves49

Probable Reserves as a Stretch Factor on Proved Reserves53

Chapter 8. The Role of Costs and Prices in Ascertaining Proved and Probable Reserves61

Variable Costs61

Lack of Growth of Reserves63

Effects of Price Controls and Per-Barrel Taxes64

Chapter 9. Proved and Probable Reserves outside the United States and Canada69

Review of Selected Reserve Estimates72

Summary81

PART III. OIL AND GAS: ESTIMATION OF UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES83

Introduction83

What Is a Forecast of Undiscovered Petroleum?86

Models for Projecting Amounts of Discoverable Hydrocarbons90

Chapter 10. Life-Cycle Models of Petroleum Production95

Chapter 11. Geologic-Volumetric Methods113

Chapter 12. Rate-of-Effort Models127

Bromberg and Hartigan Model132

Chapter 13. Subjective Probability Methods147

Circular 725148

Canadian Resource Appraisal164

Chapter 14. Econometric Methods175

Khazzoom's FPC Model of Gas Supply180

Erickson-Spann Model183

MacAvoy-Pindyck Model184

Forecasting Performance of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model (Version 2)190

A Comparison of Models191

Version 4 of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model195

Attanasi's Individual Basin Econometric Model202

Parameter Estimation and Comparison of Models205

Chapter 15. Discovery Process Models213

Deposit Attributes, Size, and Measurement Error219

Deposit Size Distributions223

Arps and Roberts and Drew, Scheunemeyer, and Root's Models233

Ryan's Model236

Barouch and Kaufman's Model248

Oil Supply Forecasting Using Disaggregated Discovery Process Models270

Chapter 16. Industry Approaches to Forecasting Future Discoveries289

Summary293

PART IV. COAL: AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETATION OF RESERVE ESTIMATES295

Introduction295

Chapter 17. The Resource Classification System297

Certainty Categories297

Physical Dimensions298

Reserve Base298

Chapter 18. An Economic Interpretation of Reserves301

The Economic Concepts301

The Demonstrated Reserve Base302

Is the Reserve Base Coal Available at Current Cost?310

Strippable Reserve Base313

Chapter 19. What We Need to Know321

Inferred Reserves323

Technological Change324

Chapter 20. Recoverability327

Recoverability of Deep Reserves327

Recoverability of Strip Reserves329

Summary331

PART V. URANIUM: ESTIMATES OF U.S. RESERVES AND RESOURCES333

Introduction333

Uranium Geology334

Chapter 21. Grand Junction Office Methodology337

Historical Perspective337

Ore Reserve Estimation338

Potential Resource Estimation341

Forward Cost Method346

Production Capability Analysis348

Chapter 22. Interpretation of GJO Estimates353

Chapter 23. Trend Projection Models361

Lieberman's Life-Cycle and Discovery Rate Models364

Econometric Model by Perl366

Chapter 24. Crustal Abundance Models371

Chapter 25. Subjective Probability Appraisal381

A Case Study of Subjective Probability382

PART VI. COMPARISONS, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND CONCLUSIONS385

Chapter 26. Resources and Reserves387

A Contrast in Terminology387

Future Cost Increases388

Coal389

Oil390

Undiscovered Oil and Gas391

Uranium391

The Need for Further Research393

Appendix395

A. The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate397

B. Decline Rates and Depletion Rates403

C. The Soviet Reserve Classification System407

D. The Resources and Reserves of Strippable Coal409

Bibliography413

Index429

About the Authors435